Rome Times

The Eternal Voice of Italy
Monday, Dec 23, 2024

Italy’s Integration Quandary: Migrant Labor and Economic Growth

Exploring Italy’s challenge in elevating low-skilled migrant labor and its potential implications for economic productivity.
In Italy, migrants find themselves in an intriguing dichotomy—a higher likelihood of employment than the average across European Union nations, yet predominantly in low-skilled and undervalued roles.

This disparity is starkly highlighted in a recent study by Mediobanca, presented at the Convegno a Piazzetta Cuccia, which reveals that only 14% of migrants from outside the EU in Italy occupy high-skilled positions like managers, professionals, or technicians.

This pales in comparison to the European average of 33%, and even more so when juxtaposed with Sweden’s 51%, Norway’s 47%, Denmark's 43%, and Germany's 34%.

This reality has broad implications for Italy’s economic landscape.

The confinement of migrant labor to the periphery of economic activity hinders productivity gains.

While immigrants elsewhere often bolster productivity, in Italy, an increase of 1% in the extra-EU migrant share is associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease in labor productivity.

Gabriele Barbaresco, Director of Mediobanca's Research Area, underscores this inefficiency, contrasting with findings from the UK's Migration Advisory Committee that generally advocate for positive impacts from immigrant labor.

Demographically, migrants serve as a buffer against Western Europe's declining birth rates.

Projections from 2004 to 2050 suggest that migrants will offset nearly half of the population decrease expected from a negative natural birth-death balance of 360,000 annually through a net positive migration influx of 195,000.

Yet, their potential economic contributions remain underrealized—a challenge compounded by their suboptimal occupational integration.

Looking ahead, better integration policies could significantly enhance economic outcomes.

Indeed, under the current integration regime, migrant-induced GDP growth is modest at 0.15% by 2040.

However, fostering comprehensive integration measures could see growth effects rise to 0.64%, or even 1.31% under more robust policies.

The North European nations—Germany, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden—embody effective integration models alongside Canada, setting benchmarks wherein immigrants are seen as peers and potential fellow citizens.

Should the EU embrace a hybrid of Swedish and Canadian integration practices by 2060, demographic dependency ratios could improve by nearly 20%.

Remarkably, Italy stands to benefit even more dramatically, potentially boosting these indices by over 40%, urges Alberto Nagel, CEO of Mediobanca.

While integration is complex, Italy’s current trajectory in dealing with migrant labor productivity signifies a journey needing recalibration.

As Nagel puts it, 'much remains to be done' to ensure that Italy reaps the full economic benefits of its migrant population, transforming them from undervalued workers into pivotal contributors to its economic vitality.
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