In 2024, irregular migration into the European Union experienced a notable decrease, dropping by 38% compared to previous years as per data from the EU border agency Frontex.

The number of illegal border crossings amounted to just over 239,000, the lowest since 2021 when migration trends were still affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The reduction in irregular migration was credited to enhanced collaboration among EU member states and international partners in tackling smuggling networks.

This cooperative strategy, combined with active border management efforts, has been key in lowering the overall crossing numbers.

Frontex’s report highlighted that the drop in migration was especially significant along the Central Mediterranean and Western Balkan routes.

The Central Mediterranean route, historically one of the busiest for migrants, witnessed a 59% decrease in arrivals.

This was mainly due to fewer departures from Tunisia and Libya, which have long been primary departure points for migrants attempting to reach Europe.

Similarly, the Western Balkan route experienced a 78% reduction, due to joint efforts by regional countries to manage and limit migratory movements.

Despite these decreases, new migration trends have emerged, pointing to shifting dynamics and potential future challenges.

Notably, Frontex reported a substantial rise in irregular crossings from the EU’s borders with Belarus and Russia, which increased by 192% to 17,000 people.

This surge indicates a potential new pathway for migrants entering the EU, with Belarus and Russia growing in importance as departure points.

Alongside increased crossings from the eastern boundary, there was also a noticeable rise in arrivals via the Eastern Mediterranean route.

This route saw a 14% rise in attempts, with 69,400 incidents recorded.

Migrants from Syria, Afghanistan, and Egypt primarily drove this shift, as new paths developed from eastern Libya.

Furthermore, the Western African route, leading to the Canary Islands, experienced an 18% increase in migrant numbers.

Frontex noted that this was largely owing to greater departures from Mauritania, located on Africa's western coast.

As irregular migration remains a key topic in European political discussions, especially among far-right and populist groups, Frontex’s report highlights the intricacies of the matter.

Migration has become a focal point in forthcoming elections across Europe, such as in Germany, where political parties are vowing to tighten migration controls.

Hans Leijtens, the head of Frontex, recognized the progress in curbing irregular crossings but cautioned about emerging risks and new routes that may pose future challenges.

He stated, “While 2024 saw a significant reduction in irregular border crossings, it also highlighted emerging risks and shifting dynamics.”

The change in migration paths and the steady influx of migrants, despite overall declines, suggest that European authorities must stay alert in adapting to evolving migration patterns.

While cooperation and border security measures have advanced, global migration's dynamics continue to present complex challenges for the EU and its member states.